Efficient market hypothesis investopedia video on betting
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Sharp individual early money instigates line moves in the sportsbooks, and then there's the head-fakers which is a practice that's been going on years. This is when the sharp players hit the early lines and limits to cause a move in one direction of the market, then they hit it back the other way for much bigger money closer to the off. I think bettors tend to be fascinated by the markets, a little fooled even, especially the less experienced punters. Being older and wiser now with a number of years immersed in these markets under my belt, a large part of what I see is a conglomerate of tin roofers.
Isn't that what we are all doing? It boils down to who can speculate the best. Compiling or originating our own betting odds Tissues So why don't we cut out all the crap and concentrate on what's important? Our tissue prices. Practice, watch, analyse and be confident in your odds tissues. What we are looking for when we finish pricing markets is outlier prices - we want to compare our tissues to the markets on OddsChecker, Betfair or on the Don Best screen in the US, and hope we find a few preferably as many as possible outlier prices we can take which are above our numbers - the further away the better as this means more predicted EV for us.
We can stake proportionally to the EV in the bet or discrepancy between attainable odds and true odds - this is essentially the Kelly concept for dummies. The bigger the odds in our style of betting the higher the variance so to combat this we might want to set a higher EV threshold the more we move up the price range.
The big betting syndicates and Closing line Value CLV Quite often towards the close of betting markets the lines are moving due to the opinion of just a few people involved with the big money. Who is to say they are right? What if they are using a flawed model? Let me put to bed some misconceptions about closing line value: Have you seen the abbreviation CLV bandied about? The "closing line value" argument is one of the topics dragging on in the professional sports betting industry right now and should be easily wrapped up in truth.
There are reasons for this. All sports betting markets are different There are more ways than 1 to skin a cat Certain markets are more efficient than others Everyone is suffering from confirmation bias believing it's their way or the highway when it comes to finding an edge in the markets and closing line value CLV. On the whole over the long run closing line value is 1 of a few ways to measure performance in sports betting.
Closing line value CLV in sports betting There are fundamental differences between the types of markets in various sports. Originally from Maine, Close Updated January 09, All reviews, research, news and assessments of any kind on The Tokenist are compiled using a strict editorial review process by our editorial team.
Neither our writers nor our editors receive direct compensation of any kind to publish information on tokenist. Our company, Tokenist Media LLC, is community supported and may receive a small commission when you purchase products or services through links on our website. Click here for a full list of our partners and an in-depth explanation on how we get paid. Do you want to beat the market?
Of course, you do — although the average returns of the stock market are nothing to scoff at, the more the merrier. Why stop there? However, recent events such as the GME short squeeze have shown us how prices can rapidly deviate from real value.
And the efficient market hypothesis has had a great effect on investment strategies since it was first put forth in the s. Right off the bat, this depends greatly on a few simple conditions — that all relevant information regarding a security is free, widely available to the public, and universally shared. Now, this is where the first disagreements arise. In fact, the efficient market hypothesis might be much older than we anticipated — with Benoit Mandelbrot, one of the more influential theorists that worked on EMH claiming that it was first proposed way back in by Louis Bachelier.
However, we can say with certainty that the theory gained traction in the s and s, particularly with the advent of computers, which made large-scale statistical analysis more feasible. Well, market efficiency is a measure of information dispersion in a market.
In order for a market to be completely efficient, all information has to be transmitted to all market participants instantly, completely, perfectly, and free of charge. This results in a market where all prices are an accurate reflection of value — meaning that it is impossible to consistently beat the market in the long run.
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